What Sales Forecasts Miss About Real Pipeline Health
For sales leaders who consistently miss their forecast despite a "healthy" pipeline, this article explains why. A standard sales forecast is a quantitative snapshot that completely misses the qualitative reality of the pipeline. It's a wish-list, not a prediction. We provide a framework of qualitative signals to look for—from Mutual Action Plans to multi-threading—to get a real sense of pipeline health.
A line graph showing a forecasted line going up, while the actual results line below it is flat.
Why CRM-Based Forecasts Are Flawed
A forecast based purely on deal stage and probability is built on a foundation of assumptions and "happy ears."
- Subjective Staging: The criteria for moving a deal from "Discovery" to "Demo" is often subjective and inconsistent across reps.
- Inflated Deal Sizes: Reps, under pressure to build pipeline, often attach optimistic deal values to early-stage opportunities.
- "Stale" Opportunities: The forecast includes deals that have had no meaningful activity for weeks but are kept in the pipeline to make it look healthier.
The result is a forecast that is more of a wish-list than a prediction. To get a real sense of pipeline health, you need to look beyond the numbers and analyze the qualitative signals. This often reveals misdiagnosed funnel problems.
Qualitative Signals of a Healthy Pipeline
Instead of just asking "What stage is it in?", sales leaders should be asking these questions during their pipeline reviews.
1. Is There a "Mutual Action Plan" in Place?
A deal without a clear, documented plan with the prospect is not a real deal. A Mutual Action Plan (MAP) is a shared document that outlines every step, from demo to legal review to final sign-off, with dates and owners for each. A pipeline full of deals without MAPs is a pipeline full of hope, not commitments.
2. Are We "Multi-Threaded"?
Relying on a single champion in the prospect's organization is the single biggest point of failure in B2B deals. If that person leaves, gets busy, or loses political capital, the deal is dead. A healthy deal is "multi-threaded," meaning your sales rep has built relationships with multiple stakeholders, including the Economic Buyer, the Technical Buyer, and the end-users. It's a key strategy to avoid the GTM mistake that kills enterprise deals.
A pipeline review that doesn't ask "Who else are we talking to in the account?" is a waste of time.
3. What is the Cadence of Engagement?
Look at the activity timeline in the CRM. Is there a steady cadence of two-way communication? Or is it a series of one-way "just checking in" emails from your rep? Healthy deals have momentum, with both the buyer and seller actively engaged in moving the process forward.
The Takeaway: Manage the Deal, Not Just the Forecast
Your CRM forecast is a lagging indicator of past activity. The real health of your pipeline lies in the qualitative factors that signal true buyer commitment. By shifting your pipeline reviews to focus on Mutual Action Plans, multi-threading, and engagement cadence, you move from a reactive forecaster to a proactive deal strategist. You stop looking at the pipeline and start actively managing it. That is the difference between hitting your number and just hoping for it.