Why Most GTM Metrics Don’t Predict Revenue
For GTM leaders whose dashboards are green but revenue is flat, this article explains the disconnect. Most GTM teams are obsessed with **vanity metrics** (MQLs, activity scores) that *feel* like progress but have no correlation with revenue. We'll show you how to kill your vanity metrics and focus on the **leading indicators** that actually predict cash in the bank, like Qualified First Meetings and Pipeline Sourced.
A minimalist dashboard where a single, clear metric 'Pipeline Sourced' is prominently displayed, while other metrics are faded out.
The Problem with Vanity Metrics
Vanity metrics are numbers that are easy to measure and easy to manipulate, but they don't tell you anything meaningful about the health of your business. They are the sugar high of GTM strategy.
- MQLs/SQLs: These are the most dangerous vanity metrics. The definition is subjective and varies wildly. Marketing can always hit their MQL goal by lowering the quality bar, flooding the pipeline with unqualified leads that sales then wastes time on. This is a common reason why marketing and sales teams are misaligned.
- "Engagement Score": This is an arbitrary score based on a mix of activities like email opens (which are unreliable), website visits, and content downloads. It often confuses research activity with buying intent.
- Sales Activity (Dials, Emails): This measures busyness, not effectiveness. A rep can send 1,000 bad emails and look like a top performer on an activity dashboard.
The Leading Indicators That Actually Matter
Instead of vanity metrics, you need to focus on a handful of leading indicators that have a direct, causal link to future revenue. These are harder to measure, but they are the only numbers that matter.
1. Number of Qualified First Meetings Held
This is the single most important top-of-funnel metric. It's not about leads, and it's not about meetings booked. It's about meetings **held** with a prospect who has been confirmed to fit your Ideal Customer Profile (ICP). This metric forces alignment between marketing and sales.
2. Pipeline Sourced (in Dollars)
How much new, qualified pipeline did your GTM efforts create this month? This is the ultimate measure of your top-of-funnel effectiveness. It's not about the number of opportunities, but their total value. This metric directly connects marketing and sales activity to a financial outcome.
3. Stage-to-Stage Conversion Rates
This is where you diagnose the health of your funnel. What percentage of first meetings convert to a technical demo? What percentage of demos convert to a proposal? A low conversion rate at a specific stage is a clear signal of a problem to be fixed.
If you can't connect a metric directly to its impact on revenue, you should stop tracking it.
4. Sales Velocity
Sales Velocity is a formula that tells you how fast you are generating revenue. It is calculated as: (Number of Opportunities x Average Deal Size x Win Rate) / Sales Cycle Length. This single number gives you a holistic view of your GTM performance, a concept we explore in our article explaining sales velocity.
The Takeaway: Measure What Matters
Stop celebrating MQLs and start obsessing over qualified pipeline. Ditch the engagement scores and focus on stage-to-stage conversion rates. Build your GTM strategy around the few metrics that directly predict revenue. It's a harder and more disciplined approach, but it's the only way to build a predictable, scalable revenue machine.